In 2026 paid search conversations, one number recurs more than any other: when an AI Overview appears on the page, Google Ads click-through rate falls from 19.70% to 6.34%. That is a real figure and worth taking seriously. It is also the kind of figure that, in isolation, produces bad decisions.
The numbers, as they stand
| Measurement | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Queries with an AI Overview | about 48% of tracked queries | February 2026 |
| Ad CTR without an Overview | 19.70% | 2025-2026 |
| Ad CTR with an Overview | 6.34% | 2025-2026 |
| Organic CTR on AIO queries | 1.76% falling to 0.61% | through September 2025 |
| Organic CTR rebound | up to 2.4% | February 2026 |
The line almost nobody quotes is the last one. Organic CTR on AI Overview queries had collapsed 65% by September 2025; by February 2026 it had rebounded 85% from that floor. It has not returned to pre-AIO levels, but the trajectory is no longer a continuing collapse: it is a settling.
Why the rebound matters. If the decline had been structural and monotonic, the only rational strategy would have been to progressively reduce Search exposure. Stabilisation says something different: users are learning when to trust the generated answer and when to click anyway. That is behavioural adaptation, not the extinction of the click.
Who actually loses clicks
CTR compression is not evenly distributed, and the variable that explains it best is search intent.
- Informational queries — "how does X work", "what does Y mean", "difference between A and B". These are where the Overview is most present and most useful: it satisfies curiosity in place and the click becomes redundant. Maximum loss.
- Comparison and evaluation queries — "best X for Y", "X vs Z". The Overview summarises, but someone weighing a purchase still tends to dig further. Moderate loss.
- Transactional queries — "buy X", "quote for Y", "X near me". The Overview cannot complete the action on the user’s behalf. Contained loss.
- Brand queries — someone searching a specific name has already decided. Minimal impact.
The practical consequence is immediate: an account buying mostly top-of-funnel informational demand took the hardest hit; an account concentrated on transactional intent probably saw fewer impressions but a stable or improving conversion rate.
Why click volume became the wrong metric
If half the clicks you lost were users who would have read a page and left, losing those clicks is not damage: it is a saving. The problem is that most reporting is still built around impressions, clicks and CTR — metrics that today describe a different phenomenon from the one they described three years ago.
Three metrics hold up better through the transition:
- Value per click, not cost per click. If CPC rises 20% while conversion rate rises 40%, the auction improved, it did not deteriorate.
- Conversions per impression. Far more stable than CTR when the results surface changes shape.
- True value per acquired customer, which requires data flowing back from the CRM — the subject of our guide to offline conversions.
The citation premium
There is one organic figure performance marketers should know: throughout 2025, being cited inside an AI Overview delivered 2 to 5 times the organic CTR of not being cited, even as overall CTRs compressed.
It is not a direct paid lever — you cannot buy a citation. But it says something relevant about where effort should go. In a context where paid loses clicks on informational queries, the value of having citable content — your own data, clear definitions, honest comparisons, pages that answer a precise question — rises rather than falls. It is the kind of work that pays both organically and as raw material for the generative formats inside AI Mode.
What to do, in priority order
- Segment campaigns by intent, not only by theme. Informational, evaluative and transactional now have different economics and need different targets.
- Revisit targets on informational queries. If a top-of-funnel campaign is judged on the same CPA as a transactional one, the numbers will switch it off even while it is doing its job.
- Change the monthly report. Replace CTR and click volume with conversions per impression and value per click as headline metrics.
- Defend brand queries. They are the least eroded part of the inventory and the most exposed to competitors.
- Invest in citable content, with proprietary data where you have it.
- Close the value loop before making any budget decision based on these numbers.
What we do not recommend. Cutting budgets in reaction to falling CTR. CTR fell because the results surface changed, not because demand contracted. In many verticals commercial-intent auctions are more competitive than before, precisely because everyone is concentrating spend there.
If you want to know how much of your spend sits on queries where the Overview bites hardest, the free audit includes an intent segmentation of current spend. See also our results and our process.